Candace MacGibbon

President, CIM
Conference Co-Chair, Capital Projects Symposium 2025

The old adage of “buy low, sell high” became widely popularized in the stock market boom of the early 20th century. The issue with this concept in a cyclical industry is how to know when prices have peaked to make sound decisions on capital investment and project development. The mining industry is notoriously cyclical, and the recent outperformance of gold has shone a spotlight on the potential for large-magnitude price increases.

The price of gold has experienced a meteoric rise over the past year, with an almost US1,000 per ounce price increase from August 2024c ompared to the same month in 2025, hitting a record high of US3,500 per ounce in April. The World Gold Council attributed the price increase to the global macro-economic uncertainty around tariffs and geopolitical tensions, supported by stable interest rates and a weaker U.S. dollar. The question many investors are asking is, how high will it climb? I won’t attempt to predict if or when gold prices will moderate. However, the recent trend highlights the challenges with the cyclical nature of metal prices and how quickly prices may rise…or decline.

Nickel prices also experienced a similar roller coaster ride recently, giving investors and companies a more traditional thrill, or terrifying experience, with a return to the bottom from the crest of the peak. After a price spike in the spring of 2024—supported by the expectation of supply/demand tightness due to the shift to electrification and battery storage, as well as bans on the import of Russian nickel into exchanges—a quick supply response, primarily from Indonesia, resulted in prices reaching a five-year low in April 2025, sending a booming industry into care and maintenance. Further, weaker-than-expected electric vehicle adoption rates, unprofitable production and slower-than-anticipated stainless steel growth have plagued the metal.

The resource industry is characterized by expensive and long-duration capital investment. In this uncertain pricing environment, companies are forced to make decisions based on long-term price assumptions that have diverged from analyst and internal forecasts. The investor anticipation for merger and acquisition activity is high, yet management teams have learned lessons the hard way that investors do not like when companies buy high and shareholder value is eroded. Boards of directors are paying close attention to capital allocation and investment returns when evaluating potential transactions.

The economics of new development projects are calculated using an estimate of long-term future metal prices, which remain on their roller coaster ride. Previous projects that were considered uneconomic at lower prices are starting to be reconsidered using higher long-term metal price assumptions, yet how do companies manage the risk surrounding their pricing assumptions to ensure value creation for their stakeholders?

In our business, increasing metal prices are welcomed, to make up for the prolonged periods of pricing drought. However, management teams face increasing pressure to bring on critical minerals supply in this current volatile and uncertain environment, without pricing certainty. This paradox is not new to the resource industry. But as investment decisions are contemplated for new development projects to satisfy critical minerals and metals demand, the question remains: what long-term price should we use?

Candace MacGibbon is on the organizing committee of CIM’s Capital Projects Symposium (CPS)—the only global industry event that focuses 100% on mining projects.

CPS 2025  is focused on the key elements that result in successful project execution, project development, financing methods and execution methods.

The fifth edition of this conference will take place at the Centre Mont-Royal in Montreal on November 4-6. We invite you to join us for this exciting event. Early bird registration ends September 19!

Take me to the CPS website