Potential problem analyses: A practical risk assessment technique for the mining industry

Abstract Risk, the product of probability and consequence, is an integral part of mining. Whether evaluating exploration priorities, determining property acquisition potential, reviewing the components of an operating mine or assessing environmental/closure issues, the concept of minimizing risk is central
to economic and technically appropriate decision making.
Until recently, risk evaluations have tended toward a strongly mathematical basis. With this previous trend, it was essential to establish precise probability density functions to all assessed components or issues where often little information was available. The combined effect of the seemingly complex analyses with corresponding insufficient data often resulted in either a poorly executed risk evaluation or no evaluation whatsoever; either result not acceptable for optimal decision making.
This paper presents a simple and practical procedure to carry out risk assessments for the mining industry. Although simplistic in nature, the power and usefulness of the technique is immense. The basis for the procedure involves combining deterministic assessments (often “gut feel”) with appropriate probabilistic descriptors. The resulting procedure, termed Potential Problem Analyses, or PPA, can be used anywhere an evaluation of risk will assist in optimizing technical and/or economic decisions.
As will be shown, a key element of the PPA procedure is the multi-disciplinary input the framework allows which makes the method ideal for a teamwork approach to decision making.
Keywords: Mineral economics, Risk assessment, Potential Problem Analysis (PPA).
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Summary: Income based taxes are significant cost elements to be considered in evaluating investment in new mine development. This paper presents the results of comparative analysis of effective income-based tax rates for mining in the Northwest Territories (NWT), selected Canadian provinces and international jurisdictions. The study was done as background to a review of royalty regulations for the NWT.
Publication: CIM Bulletin
Author(s): D. Gladwin, D. Camilucci
Keywords: Mineral economics, Taxes on mining.
Issue: 1009
Volume: 90
Year: 1997
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Summary: The Sheerness Mine, a new surface coal mine located near Hanna, Alberta, went into full production in mid-1995. The mine, which is operated by Luscar’s subsidiary Forestburg Collieries (1984) Ltd., has the design capacity to supply up to 2.1 million tonnes of sub-bituminous coal per year to the adjacent Sheerness Generating station under a 30-year contract.
This paper documents the construction phase of this project and highlights the major equipment purchases as well as the construction of...
Publication: CIM Bulletin
Author(s): Keith Haddock
Keywords: Bitumen, Coal mining, Draglines, Equipment, Mine planning, Sub-bituminous coal, Surface mining.
Issue: 1009
Volume: 90
Year: 1997
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Summary: Corrosion rates of silicon brasses, highzinc yellow brass, low-zinc yellow brass, leadedtin bronze and silicon bronzes in both permanent-mold and sand-cast conditions were determined in soft water of pH 3, 5 and 8, and hard water of pH 8 at 70°C by electrochemical polarization technique. The alloys in permanent mold condition showed greater corrosion resistance than sand-cast condition. Corrosion rates obtained from weight loss measurements showed no observable trend of a difference between...
Publication: CIM Bulletin
Author(s): M. Elboujdaïni, V.S. Sastri
Keywords: Metallurgy, Corrosion, Copperbase alloys.
Issue: 1009
Volume: 90
Year: 1997
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Summary: Option pricing is used in finance for valuing options to buy (or sell) shares at some future date because it provides a convenient framework for quantifying values subject to uncertainty. As one of the main sources of uncertainty in mining is the price (sales) of the metal, this approach can also be used for valuing mining projects.
The first part of this paper reviews options and option pricing; the second part presents the approach developed by Brennan and Schwartz (1985) for using option...
Publication: CIM Bulletin
Author(s): M. Armstrong, A. Galli
Keywords: Mineral economics, Option pricing, Valuing options.
Issue: 1009
Volume: 90
Year: 1997
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Summary: Neill and Gunter Limited (NGL) has prepared a preliminary design and a cost estimate for a ferric chloride leach plant to recover copper, lead, zinc, and silver from a typical complex sulphide ore. This plant design is specifically intended to treat unconcentrated ground ore (flotation feed), but can be readily adapted to treat bulk concentrates. Samples of ground ore and bulk concentrate were obtained from Heath Steele Mines, Miramichi, New Brunswick, laboratory testing, and preliminary...
Publication: CIM Bulletin
Author(s): W.M. Smith, P.J. Brooks
Keywords: Mineral processing, Leaching plants, base metal sulphides, ferric chloride leaching plants.
Issue: 1009
Volume: 90
Year: 1997
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Summary: Le présent article porte sur la diminution des rejets de concentrateurs produits durant l’exploitation et le traitement des minerais métalliques. Le minerai dilué envoyé au traitement a,
très souvent, un certain pourcentage du stérile qui affecte directement la rentabilité des opérations souterraines et amplifie l’impact négatif sur l’environnement. Les essais de la séparation du stérile et du minerai effectués en milieu dense sur quelques types de la minéralisation d’or, ont démontré les...
Publication: CIM Bulletin
Author(s): S. Planeta
Keywords: Dilution, Environnement, Rejets miniers, Séparation, Économique.
Issue: 1009
Volume: 90
Year: 1997
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