Economic depression cycle 13: 1929-1984?

Abstract For the last 700 years of recorded economic history, man has been subjected to alternating inflationary and deflationary patterns. Through this period of time, a severe deflationary pattern has developed approximately every 55 years, creating 12 recordable occurrences. Through the last two centuries, this severe deflationary phenomenon has come to be known as a depression. As these depressions have repeated themselves regularly, they are cyclic. This in turn leads to the question of whether the 13th cycle will also repeat itself in the form of a depression. As this cycle is now 51 years old, we must consider the possibility at about 1984.In analyzing a 700-year record of consumer prices in Southern England, the 55-year cycle appears to vary in shape and intensity. This varying phenomenon is due to the effect of longer cycles upon which each one "rides". Because each cycle effectively rides on the next largest, which in turn rides on the next largest and so on, the combined measured effect of all cycles together at any point in time is always unique. This means that any one cycle can never repeat itself in an exact identical manner. The combined effect therefore is what we observe in the form of prices and, as cycles interact, variations in deflation are produced. The "science" of economics attempts to quantify and develop theory on situations which are never identical and hence can be conservatively classified as a useless predictive tool.This means that more unconventional approaches may be required to predict our economic future. In looking at previous depression cycles, it is possible to recognize similarities in human behaviour patterns and hence the resulting economic movements. These behaviour patterns create major events or influencing factors which set the scene for a major deflationary condition. The way in which these factors occur, however, is not predictable. As more and more of these similar events are identified in each cycle, we can increase our confidence on the probability of the last event occurring (a depression). By also unravelling the set of larger cycles, we can determine the potential combined effect at any point in the future. This paper presents a system of cycles ranging from 800 years to 3 years which appear to operate in our economic system. By so doing, a long-term projection into the next century can be made. Finally, the paper deals with the main controlling similarities within the depression cycle, to show that a comparison with our current cycle implies that a major deflationary collapse in the mid 1980's is virtualy inevitable.
Keywords: Economics, Mineral economics, Cycles, Depression cycles, Prices, Growth, Decay, Markets, Elliott Wave Theory, Climate.
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Summary: The paper takes its material from three peat mining and power project feasibility studies sponsored by CANMET and conducted by Montreal Engineering Company Ltd. in the years 1976 to 1980. The role which peat may play in the Canadian energy prospectus is outlined, estimated and measured fuel peat resources are tabulated, and the economic and technical feasibility of mining peat for power generation is reviewed.Recommendations are made for future work, and construction and disbursement...
Publication: CIM Bulletin
Author(s): I.E. TIBBETTS
Keywords: Energy resources, Peat, Power generation, Fuels, Combustion, New Brunswick.
Issue: 824
Volume: 73
Year: 1980
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Summary: The development, in Ontario, of a common industry-wide program for the development of skills for employees in underground hard-rock mining is described. This program is designed to increase the productivity of individual workers by improving their skill levels, while at the same time ensuring that employees are instructed in the requisite safety and health aspects of performing various underground tasks. The program's development through a management-labour-government tripartite approach is...
Publication: CIM Bulletin
Author(s): G.R. BUCKLAND
Keywords: Underground mining, Training, Manpower, Ontario, Hardrock mining, Modular training, Safety, Occupational health.
Issue: 824
Volume: 73
Year: 1980
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Summary: Western Mines Limited produces gold, silver, copper, lead and zinc from a number of Paleozoic volcanogenic deposits near Buttle Lake on Vancouver Island. The deposits were emplaced along a series of submarine linear volcanic ridges that extended for at least 6,000 metres in a northwesterly direction.Rock types mapped include: andesitic, dacitic and rhyolitic flows and volcanic breccias; detrital breccias, tuffs and hematitic silts; black and green cherts; and a variety of dykes and sills,...
Publication: CIM Bulletin
Author(s): R.H. SERAPHIM
Keywords: Ore deposits, Western Mines Ltd., Myra deposit, Lynx deposit, Price deposit, Volcanogenic deposits, Sicker Group, Alteration, Mineralization, Discussion, Walker, R.R.
Issue: 824
Volume: 73
Year: 1980
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Summary: Complex facilities which provide for the, collection, management and treatment of effluents emanating from the Sullivan mine and concentrator tailings were made operational in October 1979. Key features of the system are the use of upgraded tailings ponds for the storage of up to 800 million litres of metals-contaminated effluents, a treatment plant employing lime in a high-density sludge process and a sludge-impoundment facility designed for maximum long-term environmental safety. The...
Publication: CIM Bulletin
Author(s): W.J. KUIT
Keywords: Environmental control, Effluent treatment, Tailings, Cominco Ltd., Water treatment plants, Lime, Flocculents, Clarifiers, Impoundment.
Issue: 824
Volume: 73
Year: 1980
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Summary: A technique by which the design of a flotation circuit may be optimized is described and examples of the application of this methodology are given. Three interrelated criteria are defined and the application of these criteria to the selection of the optimum residence time for each stage of a flotation circuit is demonstrated. The criteria are:(1) Add no material to the concentrate that is lower in grade than the feed to that separation stage.(2) Maximize the difference in recovery between the...
Publication: CIM Bulletin
Author(s): G.E. AGAR, R. STRATTON-CRAWLEY, T.J. BRUCE
Keywords: Mineral processing, Flotation, Locked cycle tests, Separation efficiency, Pipe ore, Copper, Nickel, Chalcopyrite.
Issue: 824
Volume: 73
Year: 1980
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Summary: A computer-based drill core logging system used to examine copper mineralization hosted in volcaniclastic rocks at the Sustut deposit, in north-central British Columbia, has many advantages over conventional logging. A relatively simple format for recording geological information allows complex, but significant, geologic parameters to be recorded consistently, accurately and quickly. This allows graphical presentations and statistical interpretation of the data that lead to rapid and detailed...
Publication: CIM Bulletin
Author(s): D.H. WILTON, C.I. GODWIN, A.J. SINCLAIR
Keywords: Ore deposits, Computers, Core logging, Sustut deposit, Copper deposits, Volcaniclastic rocks, Logs.
Issue: 824
Volume: 73
Year: 1980
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Summary: Conventional exploration strategies identify many mineral deposits as potentially interesting, although only a few of them turn out to be of economic importance. In the context of exploration for sulphide nickel deposits in the Canadian Shield, a decisional model, based on a statistical study of parameters relative to nickel deposits as well as to barren sulphide oc-curences, has been developed.Because such geophysical variables as gravimetry, aeromagnetism and topography could be related to...
Publication: CIM Bulletin
Author(s): R. SIMARD
Keywords: Exploration, Geophysical exploration, Nickel deposits, Logistic models, Geostatistics, Sampling.
Issue: 824
Volume: 73
Year: 1980
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Summary: This paper presents the statistical analyses of several sets of data acquired in several programs of sampling of radon daughters in uranium mines. The measurements were taken over periods of days or weeks for given locations or location-occupations within these mines. Because the sampling applies to specific intervals of time and specific locations, a method is suggested for the eventual application of a monitoring program which would be suitable on an annual basis for these locations. The...
Publication: CIM Bulletin
Author(s): C.E. MAKEPEACE, H. STOCKER
Keywords: Mine safety, Monitoring, Underground mining, Uranium mining, Radiation, Radon daughters, Sampling.
Issue: 824
Volume: 73
Year: 1980
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Summary: Asbestos tailings are a typical serpentine, hydrated magnesium silicate, consisting primarily ofantigorite and a few per cent of unrecovered fibrous chrysotile. Serpentine has unique thermal properties in that dehydroxylating calcination at 600 to 700°C can yield an amorphous structure in which most of the magnesia is liberated from the original bond with silica and thereby rendered chemically active. The amount of activated magnesia can be quantified by selective leaching with a weak...
Publication: CIM Bulletin
Author(s): M. NAGAMORI
Keywords: Industrial minerals, Asbestos tailings, Magnesia, Serpentine, Calcination, Decomposition, Leaching.
Issue: 824
Volume: 73
Year: 1980
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