The Fundamental Difference between the Real Option and the Discounted Cash Flow Methods

CIM Montreal 2003
Abstract The real option valuation method is often presented as an alternative to the conventional discounted cash flow (DCF) approach because it is able to recognize additional project value due to the presence of management flexibility. However, these two valuation methods can be separated on a more fundamental level by their differences in risk discounting. Real option valuation applies the risk-adjustment at the source of cash flow risk while the DCF method adjusts for risk at the aggregate level of net cash flow. This seemingly small difference is the reason why the real option method is able to differentiate between projects based on each project’s unique risk characteristics while the DCF approach cannot.

This paper provides an overview of the real options and DCF valuation frameworks and discusses the differences in risk discounting that exist between the two methods. Using simple grade-school mathematics, this paper clearly demonstrates how, using real options, a unique project risk discount can be calculated that is directly linked to the project’s unique risk profile. It also highlights why the DCF method fails in this regard and shows why a call to “increase the Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate” is an incomplete solution at best. Finally, a heap-leach project and satellite reserve development project are valued with both techniques and the difference in investment conclusions is explained in terms of the risk-discounting concepts discussed here.
Keywords: Real options, Discounted cash flow, Risk, Practical example, Valuation, Discounting
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